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________ ________ is the process of developing a commitment to some course of action.
Decision making
A ________ exists when a gap is perceived between some existing state and some desired state.
Problem
For a ________ ________ ________, the existing state is clear, the desired state is clear, and how to get from one state to the other is fairly obvious.
Well-structured problem
A ________ is simply a standardized way of solving a problem
Program
An ________ ________ ________ is a problem in which the existing and desired states are unclear and the method of getting to the desired state (even if clarified) is unknown.
Ill-structured problem
What is the rational decision making process?
Decision making involves making a(n) ________ among several action alternatives. Second, decision making is a(n) _________ that involves more than simply the final choice among alternatives. Finally, the "commitment" mentioned in the definition usually involves some commitment of ____________.
a) List; ranking; employees
b) Choice; process; resources
c) Decisions; activity; effort
d) Choice; practice; effort
b) Choice; process; resources
A problem exists when a gap is perceived between some existing state and some ____________.
a) Other state
b)
Perception
c) Reality
d) Desired state
d) Desired state
Because decision making takes time and is prone to error, organizations (and individuals) attempt to ___________ the decision making for well-structured problems.
a) Ignore
b) Program
c) Avoid
d) Structure
b) Program
Rules, routines, standard operating procedures, and rules of thumb are all _____________.
a) Well-structured problems
b) Irrelevant
c) Restrictive
d) Programs
d) Programs
Ill-structured problems are generally _________; that is, they are unusual and have not been encountered before.
a) Unique
b) Boring
c) The CEO's problem
d) Unwanted
a) Unique
________ ________ is a decision strategy that is completely informed, perfectly logical, and orientated toward economic gain.
Perfect rationality
________ ________ is a decision strategy that relies on limited information and that reflects time constraints and political considerations.
Bounded rationality
________ refers to the (sometimes subtle) aspects of the presentation of information about a problem that are assumed by decision makers.
Framing
________ ________ are tendencies to acquire and process information in a particular way that is prone to error
Cognitive biases
________ ________ the tendency to seek out information that conforms to one's own definition of or solution to a problem.
Confirmation bias
________ ________ ________ ________ is the tendency to ignore or harbor negative attitudes toward ideas from outside one's own organization or project team.
Not-invented-here bias
________ ________ is the reception of more information than is necessary to make effective decisions.
Information overload
________ is the choice of the decision alternative with the greatest expected value.
Maximization
The ________ ________ illustrates that decision makers do not adjust their estimates enough from some initial estimate that serves as an (often irrelevant) anchor.
Anchoring effect
________ means that the decision maker establishes an adequate level of acceptability for a solution and then screens solutions until he or she finds one that exceeds this level.
Satisficing
________ ________ are permanent losses of resources incurred as the result of a decision.
Sunk costs
________ ________ ________ is the tendency to invest additional resources in an apparently failing course of action.
Escalation of commitment
________ refers to the tendency to review the decision-making process that was used to find out what was done right (in the case of success) or wrong (in the case of failure).
Hindsight
Contrast perfectly rational decision making with bounded rationality.
Summarize cognitive biases in decision making.
Perfect rationality says that an individual or an organization has ___________.
a) Complete and perfect information
b) Incomplete but perfect information
c) An unlimited budget
d) Super intellect
a) Complete and perfect information
Perfect rationality has only one criterion for decision making: ____________________.
a) Cost
b) Economic gain
c) Charity
d) Emotions
b) Economic gain
How problems and decision alternatives are _______ can have a powerful impact on resulting decisions.
a) Limited
b) Biased
c)
Justified
d) Framed
d) Framed
The justification of _______ decisions is best seen in the irrational treatment of sunk costs.
a) One's own
b) Good
c) Others'
d) Faulty
d) Faulty
Emotionless decision making would be _____ decision making.
a) Perfect
b) Poor
c) Simple
d) Easy
b) Poor
________ ________ ________ is the ability of group members to share the burden of the negative consequences of a poor decision.
Diffusion of responsibility
What must be true for groups to perform better than individuals?
- The group members differ in relevant skills and abilities, as long as they
do not differ so much that conflict occurs.
- Some division of labour can occur.
- Memory for facts is an important issue.
- Individual judgments can be combined by weighting them to reflect the expertise of the various members.
What are some disadvantages of group decision making?
Time, conflict, domination, and groupthink
________ is the capacity for group pressure to damage the mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgement of decision-making groups.
Groupthink
What are some groupthink symptoms?
- Illusion of invulnerability.
- Rationalization.
- Illusion of morality.
- Stereotypes of outsiders.
- Pressure for conformity.
- Self-censorship.
- Illusion of unanimity.
-
Mindguards.
________ ________ is a person appointed to identify and challenge the weaknesses of a proposed plan or strategy.
Devil's advocate
________ ________ the tendency for groups to make riskier decisions than the average risk initially advocated by their individual members.
Risky shift
________ ________ the tendency for groups to make less risky decisions than the average risk initially advocated by their individual members.
Conservative shift
Groups are often used to make decisions on the premise that a decision made in this way will be more ________ to those involved.
a) Acceptable
b) Significant
c) Meaningful
d) Accurate
a) Acceptable
_________________ describes the ability of group members to share the burden of the negative consequences of a poor decision.
a) Cognitive bias
b) Groupthink
c) Acceptance and commitment
d) Diffusion of responsibility
d) Diffusion of responsibility
The process of conformity can have a strong influence on the decisions that groups make. The most extreme influence is seen when ________ occurs.
a) Conflict
b) Groupthink
c) Mind control
d) Socialization
b) Groupthink
Which of the following is NOT a groupthink symptom?
a) The illusion of invulnerability
b) Rationalization
c) Devil's advocate
d) The illusion of unanimity
c) Devil's advocate
A risky shift is ___________________________.
a) The individual with the highest risk preference in a group
b) The tendency for groups to make less risky decisions
c) The risk of groupthink
d) The tendency for groups to make riskier decisions
d) The tendency for groups to make riskier decisions
________ ________ ________ is making decisions through the conscientious, explicit, and judicious use of the best available evidence from multiple sources.
Evidence-based management
________ involves "outsourcing" aspects of a decision process to a large collection of people.
Crowdsourcing
________ concerns finding meaningful patterns in large datasets using conventional statistics, mathematical modeling, and various techniques to represent data visually.
Analytics
________ ________ is copious amounts of information that are often collected in real time and can come from a wide variety of sources, particularly digital.
Big data
Making decisions through the conscientious, explicit, and judicious use of the best available evidence from multiple sources is known as ______________________.
a) Sigma six management
b) Evidence-based management
c) Rational decision making
d) Good business
b) Evidence-based management
Much _____________ research is underappreciated by managers, but it can be a source of competitive advantage in decisions concerning human resources, strategy, and marketing.
a) Anecdotal
b) Financial
c) Social science
d)
Economic
c) Social science
Crowdsourcing involves "outsourcing" aspects of a decision process to a _______ collection of people.
a) Small
b) Large
c) Specific
d) Random
b) Large
Crowdsourcing, analytics, and big data are facets of _________________ management.
a) Decision making
b) Evidence-based
c)
Peer reviewed
d) Social media-based
b) Evidence-based
Copious amounts of information that are often collected in real time and can come from a wide variety of sources, particularly digital, are colloquially referred to as ___________.
a) Statistical information
b) Data mining
c) Analytics
d) Big data
d) Big data
_________ individuals are perfectly rational.
a) Few
b) No
c) Most
d) All
b) No
Bounded rationality suggests that decision makers ________ act rationally.
a) Try to
b) Won't
c) Can't
d) Don't
a) Try to
Time constraints, political considerations, and limits on the capacity to acquire and process information all act as ___________________.
a) Economic constraints
b) Bounds to rationality
c) Sources of rationality
d) Problems
b) Bounds to rationality
"Decision-based evidence making" rather than evidence-based decision making is ________________.
a) Problem standardization
b) Confirmation bias
c) Justified in certain contexts
d) Rational problem solving
b) Confirmation bias
Information overload is the reception of more information than is necessary to make effective decisions. Information overload can lead to ______________.
a) Proper management
b) Errors, omissions, and delays
c) Confirmation bias
d) The best possible decision making
b) Errors, omissions, and delays
Choice ____________ is the alternative with the greatest expected value.
a) Decision
b) Efficiency
c) Maximization
d) Making
c) Maximization
The tendency to review the decision-making process to find what was done right or wrong is known as _________________.
a) Satisficing
b) Hindsight
c) Framing
d) Anchoring
b) Hindsight
"Throwing good resources after bad" is an example of ______________.
a) Justification
b) Sunk costs
c) Escalation of commitment
d) Bad management
c) Escalation of commitment
____________, auction-like situations seem especially likely to prompt escalation, because they often involve time pressure, rivalry, interested audiences, and the desire to be the first mover.
a) High pressure
b)
Non-competitive
c) Competitive
d) Stressful
c) Competitive
Which of the following can help prevent the tendency to escalate commitment to a failing course of action?
a) Learn economics in order to understand the concept of sunk costs.
b) Separate initial and subsequent decision making.
c) Teach managers to fear failure so that they make better decisions.
d) Avoid careful tests of the
adequacy of the decision.
b) Separate initial and subsequent decision making.
While hindsight can prove useful, it often reflects a(n) _________________.
a) Escalation of commitment
b) Cognitive bias
c) Error in judgment
d) Reframed problem
b) Cognitive bias
People in a positive mood tend to evaluate objects, people, and events more ________.
a) Positively
b) Accurately
c) Irrationally
d) Honestly
a) Positively
If the excesses of _______ can be controlled, those in a ___________ mood can actually process information more carefully and effectively.
a) Pessimism; negative
b) Creativity; neutral
c) Emotions; neutral
d) Optimism; positive
a) Pessimism; negative
Mood has its greatest impact on __________ decisions of the type that are especially crucial for organizations.
a) Ill-structured, ambiguous
b) Uncertain, ambiguous
c) Certain, unambiguous
d) Uncertain, ill-structured
b) Uncertain, ambiguous
Which of the following is NOT characteristic of a person in a positive mood?
a) Remembering
positive information over negative information
b) Using shortcut decision-making strategies
c) Being more creative
d) Using rational decision making
d) Using rational decision making
Intuitively, these problems are simple, and their solutions arouse little controversy. This is because such problems are repetitive and familiar.
a) Well-structured problems
b) Well-known problems
c)
Straightforward problems
d) Identifiable problems
a) Well-structured problems
A ___________is a person appointed to identify and challenge the weaknesses of a proposed plan or strategy.
a) Decision master
b) Group-censor
c) Devil's advocate
d) Self-censor
c) Devil's advocate
The term big data refers loosely to copious amounts of information that are often collected in real time and can come from a wide variety of sources, particularly digital. You can remember these qualities as the three Vs: high volume, ___________and ___________.
a) Velocity; variety
b) Velocity; variability
c) Variety; validity
d) Variability; variety
a) Velocity; variety
The tendency to ignore or harbour negative attitudes toward ideas from outside one's own organization or project team is known as ___________________.
a) Not-invented-here bias
b) Groupthink
c) Anchoring effect
d) Confirmation bias
a) Not-invented-here bias
The tendency for group interaction to polarize initial risk levels can result in ___________________.
a) The removal of risk
b) Conservative shifts
c) Increased productivity
d)
Perfectly rational decision making
b) Conservative shifts
What is decision making?
- Process of developing a commitment to course of action
- Process: weight info, compare alternatives, evaluate decisions
- Commitment: resource investment
Who is the "economic man"?
"Economic man" is informed, logical, and oriented to economic gain
True or false? Not everyone makes perfectly rational decision making, but in free markets, rational behaviour would typically prevail.
False (persisted for ~30 years as an underlying assumption of decision making)
In bounded rationality, what are decisions often based on?
Decisions are often based on limited info, time constraints, and political considerations
True or false? People often think they are being rational when they are not.
True
True or false? Relying on heuristics and intuition is always bad
False
True or false? We can't assume our judgments are good building blocks for decisions because our judgments themselves may be flawed.
True
What are cognitive biases and what do they refer to?
Cognitive biases refer to the tendency to acquire and process information an in error-prone way
- Confirmation bias
- Information overload
- Escalation of commitment
What are heuristics and what do they refer to?
Heuristics are judgmental shortcuts that lead to quick decisions but can result in mistakes
- Framing
- Representativeness
- Availability
True or false? How a question is framed can affect the answer.
True
What is prospect theory?
Value of gains is less than value of losses; Loss of X hurts about twice as much as a gain of X pleases
What are sunk costs?
Sunk costs are permanent losses of resources incurred as the result of a past decision
True or false? Given that such resources are lost, sunk costs never impact future costs and benefits
False
Are original or different decision makers and groups more likely to escalate?
Original
What are some causes of escalation of commitment?
Self-Justification Theory: People want to reduce dissonance by recouping sunk costs
Confirmation Bias: Focus on information indicating potential for success
Prospect Theory: Reframing of decision as sure loss of x dollars versus uncertain loss of x + y dollars
Impression Management: Social norms favour consistent behaviours
How can we prevent escalation of commitment?
- Seek disconfirming information
- Reframe problem from loss to gain
- Structure incentives to decision makers are not punished for inconsistency
- Hand off decision to commit more resources to others
- Focus on the goals of
the investment
What is anchoring?
Tendency to rely heavily or anchor on one piece of information when making decisions
What is the availability heuristic?
Tendency to predict frequency of an event (or proportion within a population) based on how easily an example comes to mind
What are some advantages and disadvantages of group decision making?
Advantages
- Potential for higher decision quality
- Multiple perspectives
- Division of labour
- Judgement can be weighed to reflect expertise
- Decision acceptance and commitment may increase
Disadvantages
- Consume time and resources
- Potential for conflict
- Groupthink
- Group polarization
- More prone to escalation of commitment
When does groupthink happen?
- Strong identification with the group
- Concern for approval
- Isolation of group from other information
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